As investors, we know uncertainty creates price volatility. When we have more than one possible investment outcome, we get greater price volatility as the market tries to price in the probability of these various outcomes and the implications for markets. One way of dealing with this uncertainty is to adjust your investment timeframe. Generally, if we consider complex questions over a longer timeframe, we can narrow the number of probable
outcomes and sometimes almost eliminate the uncertainty.
Some of the hardest decisions in life are those defined by dilemmic choices. The U.S. Federal Reserve Bank, joined by a plethora of other central banks across the globe, are now deciding whether they should risk crashing their
economies through tighter monetary policy, or allow inflation to possibly reek even greater economic havoc over time if left unchecked. This choice has been primarily forced on central banks by the inexorable rise of demand pull
inflation and exacerbated by supply-push inflation, the origins of which both are found in the global pandemic.
It can be argued that markets are always in a state of anticipation, at any point pricing how the distilled wisdom of the investment masses see the future development of economic growth or inflation and their associated impact on corporate earnings. We are now at one of those critical junctures - will the inevitable monetary tightening needed by the Federal Reserve Bank to tame inflation force the U.S. economy into recession and, if so, how will the market price that risk?
It is no exaggeration to say that we are going through an incredibly complex and uncertain macroeconomic environment, which has arguably been created by fiscal and monetary policy responses to a confluence of exogenous shocks in recent years, namely the global pandemic and more recently war in Ukraine.