Insights

ICM Monthly Outlook - June 2026

As we move into the second half of the year, two themes continue to dominate market sentiment: artificial intelligence investment and developments in the Middle East. In this month's market review, we share our thoughts on resilient equity markets, the implications of a more hawkish U.S. Federal Reserve, and why the AI infrastructure race could mark a significant shift for the world's largest technology companies. He also explores the outlook for commodities, the normalisation of oil markets, and the growing impact of unprecedented AI-related capital expenditure. Read the full review below.

ICM Monthly Outlook - May 2026

Markets continue to demonstrate remarkable resilience in 2026. Despite heightened geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation concerns and renewed volatility earlier in the year, equity markets have rebounded strongly, with both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ reaching fresh all-time highs. Investors appear increasingly willing to look through macro uncertainty, supported by resilient corporate earnings, accelerating AI investment and expectations that policymakers will continue to favour stability over disruption. In this month’s market review, Conor Spencer examines the drivers behind the latest equity rally, why markets continue to tolerate geopolitical risk, the growing influence of AI infrastructure spending, inflation and Federal Reserve expectations, and why the outlook for global equities may remain constructive despite elevated valuations.

ICM Monthly Outlook - April 2026

Global markets have continued to navigate a complex and often contradictory environment in 2026, where strong headline index performance has coexisted with heightened volatility, geopolitical tension, and shifting policy expectations. This latest insight explores how equities have reached new highs – including the MSCI World’s recent peak in April – despite material intra-period drawdowns and an evolving macro backdrop shaped by energy market disruption, renewed Middle East tensions, and uncertainty around the path of US monetary policy. Against this backdrop, we examine the interplay between market resilience and underlying fragility, from oil price dynamics and fiscal pressures to investor positioning and rate expectations. The note also revisits recent “buy the dip” behaviour in light of current conditions, assessing whether this reflex remains justified or increasingly challenged. As markets continue to absorb geopolitical shocks and policy signals, the question remains: are investors appropriately pricing risk, or underestimating the potential for further dislocation?

ICM Monthly Outlook - March 2026

The escalation of conflict in the Middle East is now the dominant force shaping global markets, with energy supply disruption feeding directly into inflation expectations, bond yields and investor positioning. In this edition, we examine the implications of a sustained oil price shock, the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, and how markets are recalibrating in response. We also outline our current thinking on inflation versus growth, policy constraints, and the conditions required for a stabilisation in risk assets. While uncertainty remains elevated, dislocations of this nature have historically created opportunities over time. Our focus remains on assessing when those opportunities may begin to emerge.

ICM Monthly Outlook - February 2026

The early momentum in U.S. equities has paused. Year to date, American indices have drifted sideways while Europe, Asia and emerging markets have outperformed. After several years of U.S. leadership, international diversification is regaining attention. In this month’s review, we examine: the compression in the S&P 500 forward earnings multiple; sector rotation driven by valuation re-pricing; investor reassessment of AI substitution risk, particularly in software and wealth management; relative resilience among AI enablers and infrastructure; gold, treasury yields and U.S. dollar trends; the macro outlook for global growth, inflation and central bank policy; and, contagion concerns in private credit markets While AI continues to present structural growth opportunities, we are now seeing tangible consequences across entire sectors. Valuation dispersion increasingly favours businesses with durable earnings and resilient cash flows. Our broader outlook remains constructive. Global growth is expected to remain steady, inflation continues to trend lower, and policy settings remain broadly supportive.

ICM Monthly Outlook - January 2026

January 2026 opens against a backdrop of resilient markets, persistent geopolitical noise and powerful structural forces shaping the global economy. Equity markets have extended last year’s momentum, commodities have rallied sharply, and enthusiasm around AI-driven investment and productivity continues to build. While headlines remain dominated by politics, tariffs and fiscal concerns, market behaviour suggests investors are increasingly focused on fundamentals: earnings growth, capital investment and long-term demand trends. This latest update reviews the key market developments so far this year and outlines why, despite familiar risks, the outlook for 2026 appears more constructive than at any point in the past three years.

ICM Monthly Outlook - December 2025

As we reach the close of 2025, this edition of the ICM Monthly Outlook reflects on a year defined by strong equity market returns, accelerating AI adoption and periodic bouts of volatility that tested investor conviction. From record highs in U.S. equities and a powerful AI-driven rally, to currency shifts, softer oil prices and changing central bank priorities, the past twelve months have reinforced familiar investment lessons while introducing new dynamics that will shape the outlook for 2026. Against this backdrop, we review the key themes, market developments and policy shifts that influenced performance over the year, and outline the factors underpinning our forward view.

ICM Monthly Outlook - November 2025

October brought another month of gains for U.S. equities, supported by solid earnings and a widely anticipated rate cut from the Federal Reserve. The tone shifted in early November, with markets giving back some ground as investors reassessed valuations and the policy path. Some recent risks have eased, including a pause in U.S.-China trade tensions and the resolution of the federal shutdown. Others persist. Inflation remains above target, AI-related valuations have been volatile, and limited new data has heightened uncertainty ahead of the Fed’s next meeting. The central view remains that lower yields next year would support equities, credit and Treasuries, but near-term conditions will continue to depend on the flow of economic data and monetary policy signals.

ICM Monthly Outlook - October 2025

Financial markets took a brief pause in October following a strong run of record highs in recent months. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ both moved sideways, oil prices softened, and volatility ticked higher amid a series of mixed headlines and a lack of consistent U.S. economic data. Gold, however, continued its ascent, reaching new all-time highs and underscoring investor caution in an environment shaped by shifting interest rate expectations and geopolitical uncertainty. Looking ahead, ICM continues to see underlying resilience in global markets, supported by steady employment data, ongoing U.S. consumer strength, and robust corporate earnings. While isolated corporate defaults and heightened media noise have unsettled sentiment, these factors appear idiosyncratic rather than systemic. With rate cuts expected into year-end, the near-term outlook remains broadly constructive, though volatility is likely to persist as investors balance optimism around AI-driven growth with caution over valuations and policy uncertainty.