Insights

ICM Monthly Outlook - August 2026

The music is still playing – but how long can the dance continue? Global markets remain resilient, supported by strong earnings, robust economic activity and the ongoing AI investment boom. But stretched U.S. valuations, market concentration, geopolitical risks and uncertainty around inflation and interest rates are becoming harder to ignore. In our August Market Review, Ben Hannigan considers whether the rally can continue, whether AI investment will deliver sufficient returns, and why the valuation gap between U.S. and emerging markets is increasingly difficult to overlook. The music is still playing. The question is whether investors are being adequately rewarded for staying on the dance floor.

ICM Monthly Outlook - July 2026

The first half of 2026 reinforced the importance of maintaining a long-term investment perspective. Despite heightened geopolitical tensions, evolving monetary policy expectations and ongoing market volatility, global equity markets continued to demonstrate remarkable resilience. In our July Market Review, we examine the key themes shaping markets, including the implications of the Iran conflict, the AI infrastructure investment cycle, interest rate expectations and the U.S. political landscape, as well as the factors we believe investors should be watching during the second half of the year.

ICM Monthly Outlook - June 2026

As we move into the second half of the year, two themes continue to dominate market sentiment: artificial intelligence investment and developments in the Middle East. In this month's market review, we share our thoughts on resilient equity markets, the implications of a more hawkish U.S. Federal Reserve, and why the AI infrastructure race could mark a significant shift for the world's largest technology companies. He also explores the outlook for commodities, the normalisation of oil markets, and the growing impact of unprecedented AI-related capital expenditure. Read the full review below.

ICM Monthly Outlook - May 2026

Markets continue to demonstrate remarkable resilience in 2026. Despite heightened geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation concerns and renewed volatility earlier in the year, equity markets have rebounded strongly, with both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ reaching fresh all-time highs. Investors appear increasingly willing to look through macro uncertainty, supported by resilient corporate earnings, accelerating AI investment and expectations that policymakers will continue to favour stability over disruption. In this month’s market review, Conor Spencer examines the drivers behind the latest equity rally, why markets continue to tolerate geopolitical risk, the growing influence of AI infrastructure spending, inflation and Federal Reserve expectations, and why the outlook for global equities may remain constructive despite elevated valuations.

ICM Monthly Outlook - April 2026

Global markets have continued to navigate a complex and often contradictory environment in 2026, where strong headline index performance has coexisted with heightened volatility, geopolitical tension, and shifting policy expectations. This latest insight explores how equities have reached new highs – including the MSCI World’s recent peak in April – despite material intra-period drawdowns and an evolving macro backdrop shaped by energy market disruption, renewed Middle East tensions, and uncertainty around the path of US monetary policy. Against this backdrop, we examine the interplay between market resilience and underlying fragility, from oil price dynamics and fiscal pressures to investor positioning and rate expectations. The note also revisits recent “buy the dip” behaviour in light of current conditions, assessing whether this reflex remains justified or increasingly challenged. As markets continue to absorb geopolitical shocks and policy signals, the question remains: are investors appropriately pricing risk, or underestimating the potential for further dislocation?

ICM Monthly Outlook - March 2026

The escalation of conflict in the Middle East is now the dominant force shaping global markets, with energy supply disruption feeding directly into inflation expectations, bond yields and investor positioning. In this edition, we examine the implications of a sustained oil price shock, the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, and how markets are recalibrating in response. We also outline our current thinking on inflation versus growth, policy constraints, and the conditions required for a stabilisation in risk assets. While uncertainty remains elevated, dislocations of this nature have historically created opportunities over time. Our focus remains on assessing when those opportunities may begin to emerge.

ICM Monthly Outlook - February 2026

The early momentum in U.S. equities has paused. Year to date, American indices have drifted sideways while Europe, Asia and emerging markets have outperformed. After several years of U.S. leadership, international diversification is regaining attention. In this month’s review, we examine: the compression in the S&P 500 forward earnings multiple; sector rotation driven by valuation re-pricing; investor reassessment of AI substitution risk, particularly in software and wealth management; relative resilience among AI enablers and infrastructure; gold, treasury yields and U.S. dollar trends; the macro outlook for global growth, inflation and central bank policy; and, contagion concerns in private credit markets While AI continues to present structural growth opportunities, we are now seeing tangible consequences across entire sectors. Valuation dispersion increasingly favours businesses with durable earnings and resilient cash flows. Our broader outlook remains constructive. Global growth is expected to remain steady, inflation continues to trend lower, and policy settings remain broadly supportive.

ICM Monthly Outlook - January 2026

January 2026 opens against a backdrop of resilient markets, persistent geopolitical noise and powerful structural forces shaping the global economy. Equity markets have extended last year’s momentum, commodities have rallied sharply, and enthusiasm around AI-driven investment and productivity continues to build. While headlines remain dominated by politics, tariffs and fiscal concerns, market behaviour suggests investors are increasingly focused on fundamentals: earnings growth, capital investment and long-term demand trends. This latest update reviews the key market developments so far this year and outlines why, despite familiar risks, the outlook for 2026 appears more constructive than at any point in the past three years.

ICM Monthly Outlook - December 2025

As we reach the close of 2025, this edition of the ICM Monthly Outlook reflects on a year defined by strong equity market returns, accelerating AI adoption and periodic bouts of volatility that tested investor conviction. From record highs in U.S. equities and a powerful AI-driven rally, to currency shifts, softer oil prices and changing central bank priorities, the past twelve months have reinforced familiar investment lessons while introducing new dynamics that will shape the outlook for 2026. Against this backdrop, we review the key themes, market developments and policy shifts that influenced performance over the year, and outline the factors underpinning our forward view.