Insights

ICM Monthly Outlook - January 2026

January 2026 opens against a backdrop of resilient markets, persistent geopolitical noise and powerful structural forces shaping the global economy. Equity markets have extended last year’s momentum, commodities have rallied sharply, and enthusiasm around AI-driven investment and productivity continues to build. While headlines remain dominated by politics, tariffs and fiscal concerns, market behaviour suggests investors are increasingly focused on fundamentals: earnings growth, capital investment and long-term demand trends. This latest update reviews the key market developments so far this year and outlines why, despite familiar risks, the outlook for 2026 appears more constructive than at any point in the past three years.

ICM Monthly Outlook - December 2025

As we reach the close of 2025, this edition of the ICM Monthly Outlook reflects on a year defined by strong equity market returns, accelerating AI adoption and periodic bouts of volatility that tested investor conviction. From record highs in U.S. equities and a powerful AI-driven rally, to currency shifts, softer oil prices and changing central bank priorities, the past twelve months have reinforced familiar investment lessons while introducing new dynamics that will shape the outlook for 2026. Against this backdrop, we review the key themes, market developments and policy shifts that influenced performance over the year, and outline the factors underpinning our forward view.

ICM Monthly Outlook - November 2025

October brought another month of gains for U.S. equities, supported by solid earnings and a widely anticipated rate cut from the Federal Reserve. The tone shifted in early November, with markets giving back some ground as investors reassessed valuations and the policy path. Some recent risks have eased, including a pause in U.S.-China trade tensions and the resolution of the federal shutdown. Others persist. Inflation remains above target, AI-related valuations have been volatile, and limited new data has heightened uncertainty ahead of the Fed’s next meeting. The central view remains that lower yields next year would support equities, credit and Treasuries, but near-term conditions will continue to depend on the flow of economic data and monetary policy signals.

ICM Monthly Outlook - October 2025

Financial markets took a brief pause in October following a strong run of record highs in recent months. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ both moved sideways, oil prices softened, and volatility ticked higher amid a series of mixed headlines and a lack of consistent U.S. economic data. Gold, however, continued its ascent, reaching new all-time highs and underscoring investor caution in an environment shaped by shifting interest rate expectations and geopolitical uncertainty. Looking ahead, ICM continues to see underlying resilience in global markets, supported by steady employment data, ongoing U.S. consumer strength, and robust corporate earnings. While isolated corporate defaults and heightened media noise have unsettled sentiment, these factors appear idiosyncratic rather than systemic. With rate cuts expected into year-end, the near-term outlook remains broadly constructive, though volatility is likely to persist as investors balance optimism around AI-driven growth with caution over valuations and policy uncertainty.

ICM Monthly Outlook - September 2025

Our latest market insight reports that U.S. equity indices continue to climb, reaching multiple new all-time highs since July. The S&P 500, which surpassed its previous peak from February 2025, is up 11.95% year to date, while the NASDAQ is up by 14.66%. Key highlights from the report include an update on gold's performance, the treasury bond rally, and the Federal Reserve's influence. As the Federal Reserve shifts towards a more dovish stance, driven by deteriorating employment data, it has set the stage for potential rate cuts. Chairman Powell essentially guaranteed a 25-basis-point rate cut in September, marking a turning point from a restrictive to an accommodative policy. This change is expected to support risk assets and continue the upward trend in equity markets. For a comprehensive analysis of the current market dynamics and future outlook, read our full market review via the link below.

Quantum Decacorns – the Good and the Bad

The recent $10B valuation of Quantinuum, joining the ranks of IonQ as a quantum decacorn, underscores both the excitement and risks surrounding quantum technology. While such raises fuel optimism and extend runway, they also highlight a growing tension between present enthusiasm and future realities. Big raises like this can spark optimism and buy valuable time, but they also risk creating expectations that outpace reality. Kate Prebble from our Emerging Technology team shares her take on the latest valuations and movements in the quantum sector.

ICM Monthly Outlook - August 2025

Financial markets experienced a significant upswing in July, driven by robust corporate earnings, particularly from large-cap and tech growth companies. This performance, coupled with increased clarity on fiscal and trade policies, contributed to a surge in investor optimism. The passage of the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" (OBBB) and a series of trade agreements with Japan and the EU played a pivotal role in reducing political uncertainty and bolstering market confidence. Q2 earnings surprises further reinforced a "Goldilocks" scenario, characterised by solid growth fuelled by stimulus measures and AI innovation, while avoiding runaway inflation. Looking ahead, we anticipate that financial markets will maintain their strength throughout the second half of 2025 and potentially extend this robustness into the first half of 2026, or even longer. While periods of volatility are inevitable, potentially stemming from trade, inflation, or geopolitical concerns, we believe these challenges will be outweighed over time by a recovering business cycle and increasing global liquidity, driven by further monetary policy loosening worldwide.

ICM Monthly Outlook - July 2025

The first half of 2025 presented a tumultuous journey for U.S. equities, with seemingly insurmountable challenges that tested the resilience of the market. From the AI scare caused by DeepSeek, a Chinese artificial intelligence company, which negatively impacted Big Tech valuations, to the rollercoaster of tariff announcements and reversals, and the escalating military tensions in the Middle East, investors faced a gauntlet of uncertainties. Despite these headwinds, the S&P 500 not only weathered the storm but achieved an all-time high of 6,377, illustrating the market's remarkable ability to adapt and thrive amidst chaos. This review delves into the factors that have shaped the market's trajectory, including the impact of President Trump's policies, the devaluation of the U.S. dollar, and the outlook for the remainder of the year, providing a comprehensive analysis of the economic landscape and the challenges that lie ahead.

ICM Monthly Outlook - June 2025

May 2025 saw a strong recovery in U.S. equity markets, with the S&P 500 up 6.7% and the Nasdaq soaring 10%, driven by solid earnings and the Magnificent 7. Despite this resilience, year-to-date returns remain negative in Euro, Sterling, and the USD index, as the dollar has depreciated around 9%. Factors such as U.S. policy debates, the proposed tax bill, and concerns over the national debt have impacted the dollar's strength, leading to rising bond yields. Meanwhile, gold and Bitcoin hit new highs, reflecting a shift towards alternative stores of value amid dollar weakness. Markets continue to climb despite ongoing geopolitical and economic challenges, highlighting investor resilience.